A critique of Professor Havnevik's article
I read with interest the arguments put
forward by Professor Kjell Havnevik in his article on the so-called
Africa optimism. He argues that the current growth in Africa is largely
based on exports of natural resources. Projecting this trend forward, he was
somewhat right to conclude that this growth optimism is unwarranted.
However, I think there are issues the
author fails to take into account in his analysis. I will endeavour to
highlight some of these issues. The truth is that for about a decade now,
African economies have recorded robust growth. In per capita terms, GDP has
expanded at 2.4 per cent per year, good for an average increase in GDP per
capita of 50 per cent since 1996. Significantly, this growth momentum has been
maintained.
Arguing from this, the assertion that this
optimism is unwarranted even in the forward-looking perspective is contestable.
Why have countries been able to hold on to this growth momentum for a decade
now? And can it be said that this prevailing optimism is false? Absolutely not.
The paradox of economic growth and
incidence of poverty and unemployment in Africa is structural. That is,
economic structure has been built to largely survive on natural resource
revenues making it vulnerable to commodity price volatilities. This structure
has not been supportive of inclusive growth and improved welfare.
Though the current economic growth is
driven by high commodity prices, the author fails to acknowledge that natural
resource wealth alone does not explain the improved performance of the
continent.
If this had been acknowledged, I think the
debate would have been spiced up. Fast growth has been recorded in
resource-poor countries like Rwanda, Ethiopia and Mozambique (before it became
resource-rich). This demonstrates a common reality that Africa has the capacity
to sustain growth without depending on natural resources.
As the author strongly argues, this growth
indeed presents a conundrum. It masks the reality that poverty, unemployment
and inequality still persist. The World Bank estimates that the $1.25 a day
poverty headcount declined from about 65 per cent during 1995-2000 to an
estimated 49 percent during 2008-2011 in resource-poor countries in Africa. Has
poverty not been reduced in recent decades? Why then must The Economist’s sharp
reversal of description of “Hopeless Africa” to that of “Hopeful Africa” be a
surprise?
There is no denying that these positives
are insufficient. The incidence of poverty has fallen but is still high.
The continent is still riddled with youth unemployment aside from armed
violence wreaking havoc on the lives of children and adults. Even with this, it
is not wholly true that African economic development will in the future be
characterised more by social exclusion and conflict than being inclusive and
poverty reducing.
Why? From the natural resource
perspective, governments, international organisations and most importantly the
people have come to understand the negatives of loss of windfalls through
corruption, transfer pricing and illegal capital flights. This has compelled
governments to pursue reforms with the aim to derive the maximum benefits.
Mining and oil and gas contracts have been reviewed in Guinea and Zambia among
other countries.
The author catalogues the problems that
confront the natural resource sector including among others, low or
non-existent tax revenues from corporations, transfer pricing and illegal
capital flight. I cannot agree with you more.
The Africa
Progress Panel, chaired by Kofi Annan, highlights worrying details in its
report Equity in Extractives: stewarding Africa’s natural resources
for allpublished this year. Africa loses US$34 billion annually through
transfer pricing and illicit capital flights. Multinational companies cannot
absolve themselves of these practices, which are worrying also developed
economies.
The G8 in its recent meeting called for
purposive measures to tackle this menace, and the EU has issued Transparency
and Accounting Directives. The global revolution on transparency in the
extractive industry we are witnessing means the world is ready to clamp down on
these losses. Africa has been involved in this development. Several countries
have opted for the transparent way with online publications of revenues and
contracts. These are positive signs. I think these are reforms that will drive
sustainable change in the continent.
Flowing from the above, the argument that
“African economic development will in the future be characterized by social
exclusion and conflict rather than being inclusive and poverty-reducing” is
very weak. There are grounds for optimism contrary to the author’s pessimism.
On agriculture, indeed there are issues.
Though agriculture has contributed substantially to the growth of Rwanda and
Ethiopia, the existing paradox is a cause for worry. Rural smallholder farmers
who produce more than 70 per cent of food crops are among the core poor. The
author is right to cite “weak water and land rights” as major issues that
prevent efforts at harnessing the potentials of agriculture. But the argument
ought to go beyond that.
Inaccessible local and international
markets wreck the fortunes of these poor farmers. And of course, this stems
from ‘unfair’ trade. African farmers do not have the capacity to compete with
farmers in the EU and United States who benefit from huge subsidies.
I am not externalising the challenges that
confront African farmers. Far from it. But there ought to be trade regime that
gives equal leverage to all farmers in the world. Without this, one must not be
surprised if some farmers, despite high food prices, struggle to survive. The
issue of land rights depends largely on the political will of various
governments to reform their institutions. What form should these reforms take?
Gender mainstreaming in agriculture is
significant. Though women produce about 70 percent of food crops in Africa, the
veritable constrains to enable them have access to productive inputs are still
high. When this and other issues are considered, it is easy to predict that
sustainable transformation of African economies requires re-structuring of
smallholder agriculture.
Regarding the continent’s high population growth,
I am a bit surprised that the author sees this mainly as a challenge in the
long term. It is true that youth unemployment is high. Of course arguing from
this perspective, it could be said that population growth will pose a
challenge to the long term development of Africa. However, we must not
lose sight of one issue: Africa’s ‘youth bulge’ is a demographic dividend.
Countries are able to grow with a potential human resource base equipped with
education, skills and opportunities.
The reality of this has not happened in
Africa. The enabling condition to help harness the potentials of the youth is
constrained. The problem is not necessarily the predicted upsurge of population.
Africa could make the growing youthful population a force for change by giving
youth the needed skills and absorbing them in productive jobs. This has started
in some countries.
In conclusion, let me add that Africa’s
marginal capacity to reduce poverty can be reversed. It is possible with the
right type of political leadership and enlightened people. Though there are
still some miles to travel, good governance – a precondition for
change – is progressively being applied in the continent. There is optimism.
The Africa optimism is neither unwarranted nor does it depict a false
picture.